Big week ahead

Big week ahead – In October, U.S. hiring increased at its slowest pace since 2020, with nonfarm payrolls rising by only 12,000. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, and hourly earnings saw a slight uptick, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

The slow hiring was affected by severe hurricanes in the Southeast and a significant strike at Boeing Co. Although the hurricanes impacted some industries, the overall unemployment rate was not noticeably affected. Additionally, manufacturing jobs fell sharply due to strike activity.

This data indicates a continued softening in the labor market and is the final major economic release before the U.S. presidential election, likely influencing the Federal Reserve’s expected interest rate cuts next week.

Dollar drops on US polls shift

The Dollar fell as investors reassessed their expectations for Donald Trump’s presidential re-election after recent polls showed Kamala Harris gaining support. An index tracking the Dollar declined significantly, while the Mexican Peso emerged as a top performer among major currencies.

The change followed a Des Moines Register poll indicating Harris leading Trump 47% to 44% in Iowa, a state Trump has consistently won. Though some surveys show a close race between the candidates, the Dollar Index and 10-year Treasury yields had recently reached their highest levels since July due to increased bets on a Trump victory. Concerns remain that Trump’s fiscal policies might worsen the federal deficit and inflation, undermining Treasury securities.

As long as the index remains below 104.50, a downward retracement is expected to persist. The next support level is at 103.80. A break below this level could lead to further declines towards 103.40 and 103.00 in the upcoming days.

OPEC+ does it again

OPEC+’s decision to delay a production increase for the second time may help support prices short-term, but it highlights fragile market conditions.

Three key points emerge. First, the planned increase of 180,000 barrels per day (bpd) for December is minimal compared to global demand of around 106 million bpd and was meant to be the start of addressing much larger, closed capacity. The challenge of reintroducing supply without lowering prices remains.

Next, this delay gives decision-makers a few critical weeks. By postponing output changes, they will likely know the outcome of the U.S. presidential election by their December 1 meeting, while also allowing time to assess Middle Eastern tensions and China’s economic support.

Lastly, regardless of the decision, 2025 looks challenging. Leading OPEC+ members have been withholding some output to support prices, ceding market share to competitors like the record-producing U.S. shale industry. The current market dynamic seems increasingly unsustainable for OPEC+.

Gold steady

Gold remained steady below its record high as traders monitored a closely contested U.S. presidential election, which could significantly impact economic policy. The bullion was trading near $2,740 an ounce amid polling data showing no clear frontrunner between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

Uncertainty has driven demand for safe-haven assets, with many investors expecting Gold prices to rise, especially if the results are contested. However, a downward retracement is likely in the coming days until final election results reshape the markets.

Technically, the next support level is $2,730. A drop below this could lead to further declines toward $2,700, as indicators approach overbought territory.

EURUSD trying to break 1.09

Despite closing with a strong bearish candle on Friday, the Euro opened the week higher, recovering all of Friday’s decline and reaching as high as 1.0905 by the time of this report. Technical indicators are also gradually improving.

The upward retracement is likely to continue as long as the Euro defends the support levels at 1.08 and 1.0760. If it stabilizes above 1.09, this could lead to further gains, potentially targeting 1.0940 in the near term.

Prepared by Nour Hammoury, Chief Market Analyst at SquaredFinancial
Nour is an investor, independent market strategist, and financial advisor. He holds a BA in Finance and Banking Science from Al-Ahliyya Amman University and a CFTe in Economics from the International Federation of Technical Analysts. He has more than 15 years of experience in forex, stocks, and global economic developments, as well as central bank policies and intermarket analysis. He appears regularly on major international TV networks, such as BBC, Al-Jazeera, Al Hurra, CNBC, and Bloomberg, holding open discussions and sharing insights and readings of the markets and trends.

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